Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 9.353795 10.977944 12.760728 14.857519 17.250491 19.890558 23.017759
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 6.869165 9.072114 11.740531 15.185259 19.486028 24.647944 31.278441
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 5.074798 7.446669 10.579434 14.959897 20.856138 28.438269 38.831754
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 3.748484 6.059133 9.359894 14.314019 21.432576 31.140633 45.193530
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 2.864216 5.061119 8.431108 13.818890 22.016286 33.776150 51.605400
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 2.347232 4.492737 7.998408 13.920296 23.383472 37.553196 59.883269
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 1.896825 3.924069 7.443772 13.707369 24.185552 40.506672 67.150588
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 1.687491 3.731767 7.468700 14.415419 26.484742 45.900936 78.516710
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 1.457860 3.446788 7.273218 14.696950 28.076874 50.278492 88.602134
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 1.241518 3.137898 6.975362 14.737854 29.232818 54.008136 97.894149
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 1.062699 2.866800 6.700235 14.769969 30.351684 57.734330 107.419096
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 1.003726 2.853607 6.940518 15.819031 33.417501 65.018462 123.431259
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.908219 2.739083 6.963603 16.465763 35.848579 71.479462 138.676573
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.819922 2.623471 6.968401 17.081123 38.294134 78.184169 154.880227
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.694828 2.378241 6.635976 16.931052 39.204752 82.145849 166.466764
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.561882 2.071936 6.099768 16.248541 38.943882 83.869647 174.070073
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 0.459589 1.824180 5.657931 15.709330 38.908158 85.995148 182.533994
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 0.401261 1.697498 5.504728 15.828397 40.295872 91.005499 196.790860
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 0.338713 1.535878 5.224538 15.592216 40.862440 94.396527 208.116312
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 0.317996 1.517585 5.345038 16.385544 43.842265 102.924858 230.056348
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 0.285193 1.443021 5.286364 16.700847 45.732342 109.298389 248.039138
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 0.249441 1.344260 5.135190 16.746738 46.984144 114.402612 263.747122
2025-04-13 00:00:00+00:00 0.218224 1.252786 4.988348 16.782713 48.211429 119.531107 279.795504